11/23 。《$100 for All 》

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122720272366944593.html
From Wall Street Journal Asia NOVEMBER 20, 2008, 12:47 P.M. ET

《$100 for All 》
--Taiwan's misdirected stimulus effort.

The global financial crisis has given rise to many harebrained schemes around Asia (see: Japan, stimulus plan of), and to that list add Taiwan's latest policy outing: shopping coupons worth $100 for every man, woman and child.

The giveaway is slated to start in time for the Chinese New Year holidays early next year and will set the government back some $83 billion Taiwan dollars ($2.5 billion). Taiwanese residents need only take their ID cards to the nearest housing registration office or post office to receive the vouchers, which can be redeemed at registered stores and restaurants.

President Ma Ying-jeou's popularity ratings are in the low 20s, and perhaps he hopes this will distract voters from the fact that so far on his watch, GDP growth is contracting and the stock market is down by over 50%. The Taiwan government predicts the vouchers will boost GDP by some 0.64% next year, but color us skeptical. Wavering consumers are more likely to spend the coupon on things they'd buy anyway and save the "spare" money.

Mr. Ma will have to look elsewhere for meaningful stimulus. Rather than saddling future taxpayers with debt for what will be at best a slight temporary relief, better to boost the economy by cutting taxes and reforming inefficient regulatory structures. A World Bank survey released last month put Taiwan in 61st place globally for ease of doing business, down from 58th place last year -- definitely an area that could use improvement.

The voucher program is just one of several ill-conceived ways Taiwan has tried to tackle the crisis: The stock exchange has banned short selling until the end of this year, and a $15 billion government stabilization fund has plowed millions into the stock exchange since September in an effort to shore up prices.

Faced with a global financial downturn, Taiwan's response hasn't been entirely negative. Significant tax cuts were announced as part of a stimulus plan in September, and trade with China is becoming easier thanks to the recent political détente. (<--XDD)But to really weather the crisis, Taiwan's leaders will need to separate the good ideas from the bad. A policy that may be politically popular today won't be smart economics tomorrow.

========================================================

亞洲版《華爾街日報》評論專欄中，刊出一篇有關於台灣即將發消費券的評論。在《$100 for ALL》的主標下，副標卻寫著「台灣經濟振興努力，方向錯誤」（Taiwan’s misdirected stimulus effort.），暗示作法失焦。

這篇評論開頭就表示，全球金融危機導致亞洲各國推出許多輕率方案，其中包括日本的經濟振興計劃，台灣約一百美元的消費券計劃則是最新範例。文中指出，總統馬英九的支持度已降至百分之二十多，馬總統可能希望藉由發放消費券措施，轉移選民對現狀的關注。

評論並表示，儘管台灣政府預估消費券能增加明年經濟成長率零點六四個百分點，但消費者可能只會用消費券買必需品，而不會擴大消費。評論呼籲馬總統應以減稅與改革不當監管結構提振經濟，而非為了短期的些微紓困，加重納稅人未來負擔。